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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.85 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP