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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 26 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model