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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 39-C.Little 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.96 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model