Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(11:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.71 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model