4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 19 for 6 yards (95-B.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model