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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 84-H.Long to SEA 38 for 11 yards (42-D.Thomas; 8-C.Bryant) [0-D.Lawrence].

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.06 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model