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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(13:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end to SEA 26 for 4 yards (42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model