Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

(11:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-81-E.Saubert.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.98 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model