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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.15 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 41, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model