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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model