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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to JAX 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington to JAX 36 for 8 yards (81-E.Saubert).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.92 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 36, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model