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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to SF 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.55 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP