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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 14. 35-J.Dean to TB 20 for 6 yards (88-J.Tonges). PENALTY on SF-71-T.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.96 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model