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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – San Francisco 49ers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model