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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling pushed ob at SF 41 for 3 yards (25-J.Parrish).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.74 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -0.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model