Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(1:42) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to TB 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model