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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to SF 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-S.Moore to SF 16 for 13 yards (81-R.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model