Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to NYJ 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 13 for 5 yards (87-B.Tremayne). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NYJ 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.95 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model