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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 5 at the 33
New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 0
What Actually Happened
(12:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Reynolds.
The Three Options
GO
+1.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.52 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.16 EP
KICK
+0.83 EP
- 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT
+0.22 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
