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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model