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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP