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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 46

New York Jets 3 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CAR 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-53-M.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model