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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to NYJ 34 for 4 yards (95-Q.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.50 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model