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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 28 for 14 yards (0-J.Sanders).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model