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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 86

New York Jets 6 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 52 yards to CAR 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 43 for 9 yards (47-A.Beck).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.80 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 44, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model