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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP