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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 35-L.Havrisik 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP