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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 22

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model