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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP