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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.20 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model