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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 23

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.44 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model