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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at ARI 43 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.64 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model