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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(13:15) (No Huddle) 11-P.Washington right end to LA 43 for 3 yards (1-E.Forbes).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model