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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to LA 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model