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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to JAX 17, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP