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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model