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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to JAX 9, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP