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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 12-T.Hunter [0-B.Young].

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model