Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(4:53) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 43 for 17 yards (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model