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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 84

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to LA 38, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-X.Smith to LA 38 for no gain (22-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.47 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model