4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model