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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 12-T.Hunter to LA 22 for 16 yards (3-K.Curl) [91-K.Turner].

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model