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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to LA 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 21 for 13 yards (56-Y.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model