4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to KC 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 9. 81-N.Remigio to KC 6 for -3 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.46 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP