Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to KC 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -3.05 EP

KICK -1.51 EP

39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model