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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Thornton.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model