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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 14-M.Araiza punts 30 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-54-L.Chenal.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP