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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 87

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 43, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 87, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 45, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP