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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 26 for 6 yards (21-J.Hicks; 54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.94 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -1.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model