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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to KC 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 16 for 11 yards (51-M.Koonce).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP